Resolves YES if the retail price [0] of a drug showing ≥15% weight loss over 1 year [1] in overweight (≥25 kg/m2) populations is <200 Sep2023-USD/month [2] at any time before 2030/1/1 [3].
[0] By this I mean the price someone without insurance would pay out-of-pocket. Copays where insurance companies cover >0% of the cost wouldn't count.
[1] If I'm reading this correctly, that's middle of the pack for drugs available in 2023.
[2] Per capita health expenditure in the US was ~$13k in 2021. I'm anchoring to <20% of that.
[3] Temporary sales or discounts won't be enough for positive resolution. It should be possible to take the drug for a whole year and pay <$2,400 in total, inflation-adjusted.
How Long Til We’re All on Ozempic?
GLP-1s will increase from eight million patient-years to roughly enough for approximately 23 million Americans by 2030. Still, this is only enough supply for about 15% of the 147 million Americans with diabetes or obesity.
Using some loophole concerning compounding pharmacies, one can apparently get such drugs for about $254/month today: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-compounding-loophole
Once the general shortage ends, this loophole might be closed again, as noted in the above article.