Since the first FDA approval for weight loss, GLP-1 receptor agonists are in the news as new blockbuster drugs.
As of today, neither Novo Nordisk's Ozempic / Wegovy (Semaglutid), nor Eli Lilly's Mounjaro / Tirzepatid are projected to generate more 2023 sales than Merck's Keytruda (Pembrolizumab, a checkpoint inhibitor used in tumor therapy).
This market will resolve YES if a GLP-1 agonist is the best-selling drug in 2025 (new sales) per reliable company or media reports.
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@samb
This should resolve to yes based on:
Eli Lilly's Full Year 2025 Report showing Tirzepatide (Marketed under Mounjaro and Zepbound), a GLP-1 drug, at $36.507b total sales, the top bestselling drug in 2025.
This also includes Novo Nordisk's Annual Report (Page 90, Note shown in DKK so converted to USD based on yearly average conversion rate) showing Semaglutide (Marketed under Ozempic, Rybelsus, and Wegovy), another GLP-1 drug, at $34.585b total sales and 2nd highest.
These both surpassed the previous leader, Pembrolizumab (Marketed under Keytruda), which, according to Merck & Co.'s Full Year 2025 Report, had 31.68b total sales.
Other drugs, such as Sanofi's Dupilumab, J&J's Daratumumab, AbbVie's Risankizumab, were all still behind Pembrolizumab.
Furthermore, multiple secondary sources such as MedPath, Fierce Pharma, and the Motley Fool all reporting on Tirzepatide becoming the bestselling drug after Q3 2025 results, which was continued into Q4 based on the above primary reports to become the bestselling drug overall for 2025.
There is an argument that Mounjaro and Zepbound should be considered seperately, as they technically have different branding. However, both are the literal exact same drug, just in a different cardboard packaging (Like you can literally swap them out. Same formula, same injector, there is literally no difference), and should be considered the same drug for the purposes of this market.
This is also supported by the secondary sources shown above, as well as the wording of the market details, specifically "As of today, neither Novo Nordisk's Ozempic / Wegovy (Semaglutid), nor Eli Lilly's Mounjaro / Tirzepatid are projected to generate more 2023 sales than Merck's Keytruda (Pembrolizumab, a checkpoint inhibitor used in tumor therapy)," which clearly describes Semaglutid and Tirzepatid as the specific drugs, not the branding.
@mods Sorry if I'm re-pinging too early, but this market should resolve to yes based on the above. Fierce Pharma also stated that "For 2025 overall, combined sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound reached $36.5 billion, which accounted for 56% of Lilly’s revenue and made tirzepatide the world’s best-selling drug."
Does it count if the drug hits multiple targets and one of the targets is GLP-1R agonism? For example, tirzepatide targets both the GLP-1 and GIP receptors.