Will a GLP-1 agonist diabetes / weight loss drug be the top bestselling drug in 2025?
25
1kṀ12662026
30%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Since the first FDA approval for weight loss, GLP-1 receptor agonists are in the news as new blockbuster drugs.
As of today, neither Novo Nordisk's Ozempic / Wegovy (Semaglutid), nor Eli Lilly's Mounjaro / Tirzepatid are projected to generate more 2023 sales than Merck's Keytruda (Pembrolizumab, a checkpoint inhibitor used in tumor therapy).
This market will resolve YES if a GLP-1 agonist is the best-selling drug in 2025 (new sales) per reliable company or media reports.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
Does it count if the drug hits multiple targets and one of the targets is GLP-1R agonism? For example, tirzepatide targets both the GLP-1 and GIP receptors.
Related questions
Related questions
Will a majority government owned company introduce a new GLP-1 drug before 2040?
15% chance
Will GLP-1 agonists help stop or reverse the US obesity trend by end of 2027
81% chance
Will a drug company pay >$1m in a class action suit based on their statements about their GLP1 inhibitor by 2026?
38% chance
Will one of the GLP agonist drugs (eg Semaglutude/Wegovy Tirzepatide/Mounjaro) have a black box warning by 2025
7% chance
Ozempic will NOT be the leading GLP-1 agonist by total $ US sales by December 31, 2025
42% chance
Will Retatrutide (new obesity drug) be FDA approved by the end of 2025?
36% chance
By 2029, will there be an FDA approval of GLP-1 for a substance use disorder?
86% chance
Will Ozempic/GLP-1 Agonists become an issue with a clear partisan divide in the US in the next 5 years?
39% chance
Will Donald Trump ever take a GLP-1 agonist (eg Ozempic, Mounjaro, Wegovy, Zepbound, etc) for weight loss
65% chance
Will a GLP-1 receptor agonist (Ozempic-like drug) be added to public water supplies in the United States by 2075?
17% chance