![](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%2Fv0%2Fb%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fo%2Fdream%252FpVzMIdA1fL.png%3Falt%3Dmedia%26token%3Dce6b797f-ca2a-4701-acc0-d036a48d4c67&w=3840&q=75)
Will a GLP-1 agonist diabetes / weight loss drug be the top bestselling drug in 2025?
Basic
24
Ṁ1.3k2026
30%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Since the first FDA approval for weight loss, GLP-1 receptor agonists are in the news as new blockbuster drugs.
As of today, neither Novo Nordisk's Ozempic / Wegovy (Semaglutid), nor Eli Lilly's Mounjaro / Tirzepatid are projected to generate more 2023 sales than Merck's Keytruda (Pembrolizumab, a checkpoint inhibitor used in tumor therapy).
This market will resolve YES if a GLP-1 agonist is the best-selling drug in 2025 (new sales) per reliable company or media reports.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
Does it count if the drug hits multiple targets and one of the targets is GLP-1R agonism? For example, tirzepatide targets both the GLP-1 and GIP receptors.
Related questions
Related questions
Will any FDA-approved GLP-1 agonists be withdrawn from the market for safety reasons by 01/01/2025?
14% chance
Will GLP-1 agonists help stop or reverse the US obesity trend by end of 2027
75% chance
Will Donald Trump ever take a GLP-1 agonist (eg Ozempic, Mounjaro, Wegovy, Zepbound, etc) for weight loss
70% chance
Will a clinical trial reporting weight-loss benefits of a GLP-1 agonist be published in a major medical journal in 2024?
82% chance
Affordable weight loss drugs before 2030?
60% chance
Reliable Reporting indicating that more than 3% of Americans are taking GLP-1 agonists in 2024
36% chance
Will one of the GLP agonist drugs (eg Semaglutude/Wegovy Tirzepatide/Mounjaro) have a black box warning by 2025
33% chance
[M$5k subsidy] Will any FDA-approved GLP-1 agonists be withdrawn from the market for safety reasons by...
Will Retatrutide (new obesity drug) be FDA approved by the end of 2025?
46% chance
Will there be medical consensus that GLP-1 drugs have cardiovascular benefits beyond those provided via weight loss?
66% chance