Current reading: KFF's tracking poll (fielded 27 October to 2 November 2025) found 12% of US adults currently taking a GLP-1 drug for weight loss, diabetes or another condition, and 18% having ever taken one, up from 6% current use in mid-2024. Two definitional points matter for this market. "Citizens" includes children, who are about 22% of the population and rarely prescribed these drugs, so 10% of citizens is roughly 13% of adults. And "for weight loss" excludes the diabetes users, who were the majority of early prescriptions; KFF's reason breakdown puts weight-loss use somewhat below the 12% headline. So the bar is already close on adults overall and still a little short on the strict reading, with four and a half years to go and oral and monthly versions arriving. Footnote for the longer horizon: the same drugs are now in an ARPA-H-funded aging trial (VITAL-H, semaglutide arm), and an aging indication would change the eligible pool entirely (mine): /w0lph/will-the-fda-approve-any-drug-for-a

I would hope that if 10% of people are taking it by that point OTC becomes the obvious route.

https://erictopol.substack.com/p/the-new-obesity-breakthrough-drugs

I presume over the counter stuff wouldn't count?

@KCS It specifies "prescription", so that implies no OTC