Affordable weight loss drugs before 2030?
Basic
23
Ṁ6752030
60%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if the retail price [0] of a drug showing ≥15% weight loss over 1 year [1] in overweight (≥25 kg/m2) populations is <200 Sep2023-USD/month [2] at any time before 2030/1/1 [3].
[0] By this I mean the price someone without insurance would pay out-of-pocket. Copays where insurance companies cover >0% of the cost wouldn't count.
[1] If I'm reading this correctly, that's middle of the pack for drugs available in 2023.
[2] Per capita health expenditure in the US was ~$13k in 2021. I'm anchoring to <20% of that.
[3] Temporary sales or discounts won't be enough for positive resolution. It should be possible to take the drug for a whole year and pay <$2,400 in total, inflation-adjusted.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
More than 10% of US citizens will be on prescription drugs for weight loss by 2031
57% chance
More than 30% of US citizens will be on prescription drugs for weight loss by 2031
19% chance
Will a senolytic drug be used clinically to slow, prevent, or reverse aging by the end of 2033?
46% chance
Will a GLP-1 agonist diabetes / weight loss drug be the top bestselling drug in 2025?
30% chance
Will Medicare or Medicaid cover weight loss drugs by 2029?
76% chance
Will Pfizer announce a weight loss drug competing with Ozempic and Wygovy before 12/31/2024?
43% chance
Will a drug to be used by most healthy adults be approved by 2043 year end?
60% chance
Will GLP-1 agonists help stop or reverse the US obesity trend by end of 2027
75% chance
Will a large insurance company cover weight loss drugs before 2027?
84% chance
The FDA will approve a drug for the treatment of senescence (aging) before the end of the decade (before 2030)
24% chance