Resolves YES if the retail price [0] of a drug showing ≥15% weight loss over 1 year [1] in overweight (≥25 kg/m2) populations is <200 Sep2023-USD/month [2] at any time before 2030/1/1 [3].

[0] By this I mean the price someone without insurance would pay out-of-pocket. Copays where insurance companies cover >0% of the cost wouldn't count.

[1] If I'm reading this correctly, that's middle of the pack for drugs available in 2023.

[2] Per capita health expenditure in the US was ~$13k in 2021. I'm anchoring to <20% of that.

[3] Temporary sales or discounts won't be enough for positive resolution. It should be possible to take the drug for a whole year and pay <$2,400 in total, inflation-adjusted.