Affordable weight loss drugs before 2030?
23
93
1k
2030
60%
chance

Resolves YES if the retail price [0] of a drug showing ≥15% weight loss over 1 year [1] in overweight (≥25 kg/m2) populations is <200 Sep2023-USD/month [2] at any time before 2030/1/1 [3].

[0] By this I mean the price someone without insurance would pay out-of-pocket. Copays where insurance companies cover >0% of the cost wouldn't count.

[1] If I'm reading this correctly, that's middle of the pack for drugs available in 2023.

[2] Per capita health expenditure in the US was ~$13k in 2021. I'm anchoring to <20% of that.

[3] Temporary sales or discounts won't be enough for positive resolution. It should be possible to take the drug for a whole year and pay <$2,400 in total, inflation-adjusted.

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How does this resolve if insurance companies are willing to foot the bill in its entirety? My sister is taking it and pays nothing, at the moment. I'm not sure if that's the norm, yet, but it seems like insurance companies are considering effective obesity treatments as worthwhile investments.

@AndrewHartman that wouldn't count, hence "retail price". I'll add a clarification.

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