Will US obesity decrease by more than 1% before 2030?

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2030

80%

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I am open to different sources of data on this one; I think they should agree, but I will happily argue with anyone who has a different source until we get it resolved.

More precisely, my question here is: Will the U.S. obesity rate be more than 1 percentage point lower, on Jan 1, 2030, than it was in mid-2024?

So decreases that reverse before 2030, don't count.

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https://x.com/BoyanSlat/status/1860730846795145268

sold Ṁ65 NO

Reversed my NO purchase because it seemed kind of scuzzy to buy a bunch of NO right before I edited the description to make it more obvious that it's not very easy to resolve YES.

bought Ṁ25 YES

https://x.com/robertwiblin/status/1842173864492601675

@jdilla That is "relative to trend", meaning not necessarily an absolute decrease.

It does look in that graph like an absolute decrease has happened. However, the major likely feed-in to the question here is whether there's enough ROI left in the population for increased GLP-1 agonist adoption, that increased GLP-1 agonist adoption can continue to decrease obesity faster than it "secularly" increases, for the next 4 years.

Will edit the description to clarify.

as in the prevalence of obesity in 2030 is more than one percentage point lower than it is today?

@ouroboros Yes.

@Lorec do you have an agreed source you'll use for comparison?

@StephenBuggy Not yet; I of course don't really trust the CDC, but I don't know who to use instead. Right now I'm in an epistemic state where I'm open to suggestions.

Of course I'll just default to government data [ CDC or otherwise ] if I don't find anyone obviously better before market close.

And if a market participant thinks my preferred source's data was non-representative, I will hear out their arguments and reconsider.