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MANIFOLD
Nobel Prize awarded for Ozempic (or GLP-1 drugs) by 2030?
11
Ṁ105Ṁ694
2029
43%
chance

Any nobel prize (though medicine is most likely) primarily for the development of or work done on GLP-1 drugs or any specific drugs in this category, including semaglutide, tirzepatide, etc

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Two signals this cycle. Clarivate's 2026 Citation Laureates in Physiology or Medicine, announced 17 September, are led by the GLP-1 trio: Daniel Drucker (Toronto), Jens Juul Holst (Copenhagen) and Svetlana Mojsov (Rockefeller), and the 2024 Lasker~DeBakey Clinical Award already went to GLP-1 (Habener, Knudsen, Mojsov). Medicine is announced on Monday 5 October. One thing to keep separate from the obesity story if it comes up in a citation: GLP-1 drugs are now also being tested as aging drugs, with semaglutide one of the three arms of VITAL-H (726 adults aged 60 to 65, ARPA-H funded), and SELECT showed a 19% lower all-cause death rate in overweight adults with heart disease. Whether any drug gets an aging indication is a separate race, and the only regulator acceptance of lifespan extension as an indication so far is for dog drugs (mine): /w0lph/which-species-will-get-the-first-re