Will an LLM get at least 80% on the 2026 USAMO for less than $2?
9
Ṁ1kṀ6.7kresolved Mar 29
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves according to the score and total cost given by matharena.ai. Only uncontaminated models released before the competition will be eligible.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ798 | |
| 2 | Ṁ51 | |
| 3 | Ṁ41 | |
| 4 | Ṁ16 | |
| 5 | Ṁ7 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will I earn at least $25 per hour grading USA(J)MO?
33% chance
Will my score on USAMO 2026 make MOP?
41% chance
Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?
72% chance
Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?
14% chance
Will an LLM score >=95% on SimpleBench before 2028?
72% chance
Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?
92% chance
Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?
90% chance
Will an LLM score >=85% on FrontierMath Tier 4 before 2028?
79% chance
Will LLM training costs fall 1,000x by 2028?
74% chance
Will LLM training costs fall 300x by 2028?
87% chance