MANIFOLD
Will I earn at least $25 per hour grading USA(J)MO?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ193
Dec 31
69%
chance

I am a grader for USA(J)MO. Let M be the amount of money that I earn from this (pre-tax). I will estimate the hours spent H as follows:

  • For each problem P I grade, using a period of uninterrupted grading near the middle of my grading experience for that problem, I will estimate R_P, the amount of papers that I grade per hour in an ideal setting. These will be rounded to the nearest tenth.

  • I will sum the amount of papers I graded divided by R_P over all problems P.

The reason that I am using this procedure is that I often grade in non-ideal conditions (e.g. while eating, while in class, etc.) which decrease the amount of papers I grade per hour, and it would be unfair to weight this time equally.

  • Finally, I will add 1/6 hour (10 minutes) per conflict. (These occur when I assign a different score from another grader, and we need to agree on a score.)

This market resolves YES if M >= 25*H. Otherwise, it resolves NO.

After USAMO scores are released, I will release the the set of all problems I graded, and for each problem the value R_P, the amount of papers I graded, and the amount of conflicts I had.

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