I am a grader for USA(J)MO. Let M be the amount of money that I earn from this (pre-tax). I will estimate the hours spent H as follows:
For each problem P I grade, using a period of uninterrupted grading near the middle of my grading experience for that problem, I will estimate R_P, the amount of papers that I grade per hour in an ideal setting. These will be rounded to the nearest tenth.
I will sum the amount of papers I graded divided by R_P over all problems P.
The reason that I am using this procedure is that I often grade in non-ideal conditions (e.g. while eating, while in class, etc.) which decrease the amount of papers I grade per hour, and it would be unfair to weight this time equally.
Finally, I will add 1/6 hour (10 minutes) per conflict that I am involved in and that I take nonzero effort in resolving. (These occur when I assign a different score from another grader, and we need to agree on a score.)
This market resolves YES if M >= 25*H. Otherwise, it resolves NO.
After USA(J)MO scores are released, I will release the the set of all problems I graded, and for each problem the value R_P, the amount of papers I graded, and the number of conflicts I had. This will be when H will be computed. M will be computed (and the market resolved) at the time that MAA pays me or EOY 2026, whichever occurs first.
Disclaimer: The monetary payment had little impact on my decision to be a grader, and has little impact on how much I decide to grade.
EDIT: H is approximately 72.0612. The market will resolve YES iff M ≥ $1801.53.
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A toast to MAA's history of typoed emails and faulty math
@traders I have been told that I will be paid $2700 from MAA. When I get paid this will make M = $2702.00.
Are NO bettors fine with me resolving this now or should I wait until I actually get paid?
H=72 hours? it is truly free mana
On USAMO4, I graded 292 papers with an R-value of 7.5 and had 54 conflicts.
On USAJMO5, I graded 185 papers with an R-value of 10.3 and had 37 conflicts.
Therefore the final value of H is ~72.0612. The market will resolve YES iff M ≥ $1801.53.
@rewind is there potential for a rounding error here? is it slightly greater than 1801.53 or slightly less than? does it matter?
@jatloe 1801.53 is 25H rounded up to the nearest cent. This is fair because I require that M is at least 25H. In the unlikely case that I get paid in fractional quantities of a cent, I will update the cutoff.
The actual value is lower than 1801.53 by 0.087 cents.
Updates to the market:
H will be computed when scores release.
M will be computed (and the market resolved) at the time that MAA pays me or EOY 2026, whichever occurs first. (Of course, if the latter occurs first, it is very likely that the market resolves NO.)