Will an LLM score >=85% on FrontierMath Tier 4 before 2028?
6
Ṁ100Ṁ662027
60%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
FrontierMath: LLM Benchmark for Advanced AI Math Reasoning | Epoch AI
This market will be resolved as YES if the accuracy of any LLM on the Tier 4 leaderboard will be 85.0% or higher before Jan 1, 2028.
Note that confidence intervals are ignored for the purpose of this market. For example, 85.0%±10.0% counts and the market will be resolved, whereas 80.0%±10.0% doesn't count. Also, Tiers 1-3 are not relevant for this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
64% chance
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
34% chance
What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?
Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?
72% chance
Will a LLM trained with FP4 have frontier-level performance before 2028?
31% chance
Will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030?
73% chance
Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?
30% chance
Before what year will Al achieve 85% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark?
Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026?
92% chance
In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark?