Will LLM training costs fall 1,000x by 2028?
40
110Ṁ2057
2028
74%
chance

AI
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

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Training what exaxtly?

Training cost for a model with with Performance equal to todays Models.

-Training cost for whatever Models are SOTA in 2028.

bought Ṁ30 YES

Compared to mid 2023? Yeah think so

Train from scratch or finetune?

Roughly $80-$1,000 to raise llamas

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92% chance
Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?
90% chance
Will LLM training costs fall 300x by 2028?
87% chance
Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?
34% chance
Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?
4% chance
Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?
59% chance
Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?
12% chance
Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?
86% chance
Will China have the best LLM by the end of 2025?
19% chance
Will LLMs be better than typical white-collar workers on all computer tasks before 2026?
9% chance
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