Will LLM training costs fall 1,000x by 2028?
40
110Ṁ2047
2028
80%
chance

AI
Get
Ṁ1,000
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Training what exaxtly?

Training cost for a model with with Performance equal to todays Models.

-Training cost for whatever Models are SOTA in 2028.

bought Ṁ30 YES

Compared to mid 2023? Yeah think so

Train from scratch or finetune?

Roughly $80-$1,000 to raise llamas

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Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?
92% chance
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90% chance
Will LLM training costs fall 300x by 2028?
87% chance
Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?
25% chance
The cost of any LLM model's training cost exceeds Gemini Ultra's $191M by end of 2025
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Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?
34% chance
Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?
82% chance
How soon will Private investment in LLMs be lower than it was in 2024Q1? (from 01.01 to 31.3 of 2024)
Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?
7% chance
Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?
72% chance
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