Will AI creative writing have an o1 moment before 2027?
Will AI creative writing have an o1 moment before 2027?
11
100Ṁ2182027
70%
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Resolves yes if I judge an AI model to exceed gpt-4o in creative writing by a similar magnitude as o1 exceeds gpt-4o in advanced mathematics.
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From personal experience using AI tools in creative writing, I believe an “o1 moment” (true human-level originality) might happen sooner than we think, possibly even by 2027. Already, tools I’ve used have shifted from predictable to impressively nuanced. Sure, there's debate about authenticity, and sometimes AI-generated content lacks emotional depth, I actually read some interesting feedback here https://www.pissedconsumer.com/resumegenius/RT-F.html highlighting user frustrations with automated writing. However, with rapid tech evolution, I wouldn't underestimate future breakthroughs.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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