Will an AI system beat humans in the GAIA benchmark in 2024?
12
190Ṁ809resolved Jan 4
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
GAIA: a benchmark for General AI Assistants
paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12983
GPT4 scored only 15% compared to 92% for humans
I will resolve based on open source results or official reputable company announcements/papers.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ33 | |
2 | Ṁ17 | |
3 | Ṁ16 | |
4 | Ṁ11 | |
5 | Ṁ5 |
Sort by:
@JanProvaznik Resolves as NO. AI Assistants still score much worse than humans:

@mods Resolves as NO. The market creator has been inactive for two months. The resolution should be very clear: GAIA's leaderboard shows AI assistants are still significantly behind humans.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will an AI score 1st place on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025?
33% chance
Will an AI system beat humans in the GAIA benchmark before the end of 2025?
65% chance
By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?
Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027?
95% chance
What will be the best AI performance on Humanity's Last Exam by December 31st 2025?
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
77% chance
Will AI be smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025?
16% chance
Will an AI system beat human performance in Trackmania Tool-Assisted Speedrunning by the end of 2025?
6% chance
Will an AI be able to play a type of video game that it wasn't trained on before 2026?
33% chance
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
60% chance