Will the winner of the ARC Kaggle competition solve at least 50% of the tasks

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resolved Nov 5

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Will any team on the leaderboard of the ARC Kaggle Challenge solve at least 50% of the tasks by the end of the contest without being disqualified?

Details:

Challenge Overview: ARC is hosting a Kaggle Challenge with a grand prize of $1,000,000 for solving more than 85% of the problems.

Current Performance: The best model on the ARC prize website currently achieves a 34% success rate, while human performance is around 85%.

Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to YES if, by the end of the contest, any team on the leaderboard that has not been disqualified solves at least 50% of the tasks. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

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Mind fixing the title? Should be at least 50% not more than 50%

@Usaar33 Fixed :)

bought Ṁ300 YES

Looks like some promising results already!

They plan to run the contest yearly until an open source submission gets 85%. I assume this question is about this year?

Yes, the currently running competition, which will close submissions in 5 months.

@jskf "yearly" 😂 I doubt this contest will run many years... Just one more would surprise me

@RationalHippy yeah, the top score is currently very close to the 50%, but still far away from the 85% where arc is considered "solved"

But I cannot imagine it will take much longer to get there

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