Will an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2025?
14
220Ṁ2546resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves "Yes" if, at time of closure, there is an entry on the SWE-bench leaderboard (https://www.swebench.com/) with score greater or equal to 90%.
Linked Questions:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ54 | |
| 2 | Ṁ32 | |
| 3 | Ṁ21 | |
| 4 | Ṁ16 | |
| 5 | Ṁ9 |
Sort by:
@DavidFWatson That's an excellent question. Let's explore possibilities:
This could be included in the question, i.e. what matters is only the number on the benchmark, regardless of whether it was gamed
I could wait a certain amount of time to check if no controversy emerges. Feels like one month would be safe. The question then resolves yes if one month after the deadline, I judge that there is no consensus that the number was gamed. This makes the question more informative.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2026?
63% chance
Will an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2027?
72% chance
By what factor will the cost for SotA SWE-agents drop from 2024 to 2025?
AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench without any assistance, by 2028?
AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028?
Will an AI system capable of doing tasks that take humans eight hours as determined by METR.org, exist by 2027
83% chance
Will any AI solve more than four of AI 2027 Marcus-Brundage tasks in 2025?
28% chance
Will a smart agent pass our Turing test by the end of 2025?
58% chance
Will OpenAI models achieve ≥90% on SimpleBench by the end of 2025?
41% chance
By 2026 will there be autonomous AI good enough that I use it?
37% chance