Will the winner of the ARC Kaggle competition solve more than 50% of the tasks
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Will any team on the leaderboard of the ARC Kaggle Challenge solve at least 50% of the tasks by the end of the contest without being disqualified?

Details:

  • Challenge Overview: ARC is hosting a Kaggle Challenge with a grand prize of $1,000,000 for solving more than 85% of the problems.

  • Current Performance: The best model on the ARC prize website currently achieves a 34% success rate, while human performance is around 85%.

  • Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to YES if, by the end of the contest, any team on the leaderboard that has not been disqualified solves at least 50% of the tasks. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

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bought Ṁ300 YES

Looks like some promising results already!

https://redwoodresearch.substack.com/p/getting-50-sota-on-arc-agi-with-gpt

They plan to run the contest yearly until an open source submission gets 85%. I assume this question is about this year?

Yes, the currently running competition, which will close submissions in 5 months.

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