Will *any* remaining Millenium Prize problem be solved entirely or mostly by humans?
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2040
53%
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Will humans be responsible for the solutions to any remaining Millenium Prize problem?

This question is aiming for the scenario where most future advanced math is done by AI. If even 25% of the "effort" of solving the problem is made by human mathematicians I will resolve YES.

  • If deep learning ends up largely superseded by some future paradigm I will update the question to reflect that. The question is about the current cutting edge of AI, not deep learning specifically.

  • To my knowledge essentially no existing theorems wouldn't pass the bar of "mostly solved by humans".

  • Example: if this question was about the four color theorem it would have resolved YES.

  • A human working with a variety of AI assistants (e.g. a very good arxiv searcher, a proof assistant that can prove undergraduate theorems but not most graduate-level theorems on its own) still resolves YES

  • More generally: if there's AI involved and it couldn't get near-perfect scores on all math competitions, ace any graduate level math exam, prove most theorems in published textbooks given the setup, etc. the question resolves YES. (It may resolve YES even for AI that can do all of that depending on the scenario, but you can be confident that anything short of that will still count as "mostly human")

  • If almost all of the work is done by humans and then the last few steps are done by a weak AI for PR reasons or something like that question still resolves YES.

  • Question resolves N/A at market close if no human has solved a Millenium Prize problem and there are still some left.

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