By when will 85% be reached on the public evaluation set on ARC-AGI-Pub?
Premium
38
Ṁ12k2030
18%
01/01/2025
62%
01/01/2026
76%
01/01/2028
82%
01/01/2030
See https://arcprize.org/arc-agi-pub.
This allows for arbitrary API usage unlike the ARC-AGI prize.
I will resolve based on when the date when the method is first reported even if it is not submitted until substantially later (due to e.g. no public API).
I will apply a restriction roughly in line with the $10,000 runtime cost contraint, though it is unclear how this should resolve with respect to private models with no known API price.
I will exclude solutions that seem heavily overfit based on the semi-private evaluation set.
(Cut off data is resolved based on midnight PT.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?
28% chance
Will GPT4/Opus report >50% score on ARC in 2024?
37% chance
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2025?
47% chance
Will we get AGI before 2028?
36% chance
AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 2028
47% chance
Will we get AGI before 2025?
3% chance
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?
56% chance
Will we get AGI before 2028?
22% chance
Before what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?
In what year will we achieve AGI?