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2041
55%
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Pilotless planes? Self-flying planes? Autonomous aviation?

UAVs have existed for some time now, but most applications for them have been military related for decades. While it would make transport generally cheaper (citation needed), the public remains hesitant to get into a plane without a pilot (at least one of the fleshy variety) so far.

The autopilot function is already able to perform many tasks in some planes, so in a way we could view this as the consumer extending the amount of trust they grant to the autopilot to the point of agreeing to get on a pilotless plane.

The question is:

Will you be able to buy a ticket to a commercial civilian self-flying plane flight by 2040?

This question assumes that you have the budget and motivation to do so, of course. To define further:

Resolves YES if:

- At least one percent (1%) of the civilian commercially available flights of the worldwide aviation industry are performed by self-flying planes in a given year.

Resolves NO if:

- The civil aviation industry collapses for some reason (environmental factors? teleportation?).

- Self-flying planes do not make it to the civil aviation market by 2040.

- Self-flying planes remain a very niche mode of transport, i.e. less than one percent (1%) of the commercially available flights of the worldwide aviation industry are performed by self-flying planes in a given year.

Edit: "Autonomous" in the context of this question implies that human intervention is no longer necessary and therefore the plane is flown without a pilot.

Considering this is my first question on Manifold, the resolution criteria could still be ambiguous, so please comment regarding any clarifications that may be required.

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Could you be more specific about the level of autonomy? E.g. would you consider a plane with a pilot for safety-takeover on board autonomous or not?

@Gideon37 Yes. The idea here is that the level of autonomy is such that pilots are no longer required and therefore an extra expense that companies would stop paying for.

I guess this level of autonomy implies these aircraft are designed to perform a broader range of tasks without human intervention. They can navigate, make decisions, and respond to various situations autonomously.

So, in short, pilots need not apply.

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