Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win the Time Magazine person of the year by 2042?
2043
7%
chance

Person of the Year (called Man of the Year or Woman of the Year until 1999) is an annual issue of the United States news magazine and website Time featuring a person, a group, an idea, or an object that "for better or for worse ... has done the most to influence the events of the year".

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year

This market resolves to YES if Eliezer wins the prize at or before the 2042 edition.

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RobinGreen avatar
Robin Greenbought Ṁ90 of NO

Even if he was proven 99% right but humanity somehow survived a violent onslaught from a hostile AGI, I don't think this would be sufficient to make him win the award. In such a situation, some heroic soldier or President or someone like that would probably be nominated, even if they had previously disparaged the threat or Yudkowsky, publicly or privately. That's just the way humanity - and America - works, sadly.

MP avatar
MP

Ok guys, just to clarify.

I want that Eliezer Yudkowsky to be personally chosen, OK? 2006 wouldn't count. The rationalist community wouldn't count. The anti-AI guerrilla wouldn't count.

If he's choosen alongside other people, this would count.

Tripping avatar
Tripping

pretty sure he already won in 2006

MP avatar
MP

@Tripping just to clarify, 2006 wouldn't count