50% chance. YES = Yudkowsky NO = Hotz In response to https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1688617812141785088 "Winning" the debate is understood to be a subjective metric. This market resolves 48 hours after the debate completes (if streamed live) or is released (if it is not streamed live and released as a recording). The market resolves according to a Manifold poll opened after the conculsion of the debate and closed 48 hours later. The poll will ask "Who won the debate between Eliezer Yudkowsky and George Hotz?" If no debate takes place by the end of 2023 the market resolves NA. 8/15 9:02AM PDT edit - changed resolution criteria from resolving as a probability to resolving according to the results of a poll