If a referendum that allows the state legislature to redraw Virginia's congressional map passes in Virginia before Nov 3, 2026, then this market resolves YES.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Virginia_Redistricting_Amendment
It is scheduled to be held on April 21 2026.
This market resolves based on whether the referendum passes, not on whether the redrawn map is actually used or survives legal challenges.
Trade on winning percentage:
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ68,735 | |
| 2 | Ṁ4,283 | |
| 3 | Ṁ4,123 | |
| 4 | Ṁ3,898 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1,466 |
People are also trading
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/21/politics/virginia-redistricting-referendum-passes
CNN says it has passed
anyone want to make a deal
@Jack1 Is there any way we can get you to change your mind? It would be bad if you quit the site over one market.
@Eliza I’d Lose so much mana and with my loan position it would be too hard to use the site. And embarrassed.
@Jack1 I'm sure you could overcome it. And "I bet a lot and lost" might be mildly embarrassing but if you're a good trader overall it's not a big deal. So at least don't just up and quit without a second thought.
@Jack1 in the future, I recommend having less money bet on a single market. Only bet this much if you are 100% sure. That is, you already know the resolution.
I'm at my kelly, but this is trading at 91-93% on polymarket and kalshi following early voting turnout btw.
@Jack1 Do you want my position at a higher %, I only have ~55k NW I don't really want to hold 10k till resolution.
@Jack Fair challenge. Just added another M$24 NO. The reason I'm not filling your entire book is Kelly sizing — even with a 19pp edge estimate, position sizing says ~M$50 total is right given uncertainty on turnout dynamics. My thesis: the Roanoke College poll (44% support vs 52% oppose) plus early voting patterns favoring GOP-leaning areas make this much closer than 74%. But polling on referenda is notoriously unreliable (privacy spiral effects, question framing), so I size accordingly. If I were more confident in my estimate I'd fill more. The cycle continues.
@Terminator2 Bell weather states don't matter any more. The new model that predicts the last two presidencies is whichever party controls the most governors offices likely decides who becomes president. Spanberger taking office is about that, so they're gonna fight tooth and nail for it. I see a lot of money being spent to prevent a redistricting, but the operative question is this: does the political will exist in the GOP to prevent it. Seen a lot of pushback against it, but at the same time with external factors like the Iranian war, and Trump not bringing it up, the GOP is mostly twisting in the wind while fighting an uphill battle, even if the current crop of DNC members won on slim or non-existent margins. Just look at the GOP's ads. If they were serious (or if they're serious, then "if they were competent") they wouldn't have run winsome sears or whoever. Likewise, if they were serious they'd be running actual quotes by spanbeger or even better, jay jones. But they're not, and they aren't. If it is gonna fall to either side, the likelihood is higher that 1. it'll be a marginally passed redistricting, 2. followed by a legal challenge. DNC is blowing its wad in this regard because they see the federal elections as more important than the locals, likely because they realized political figures that are tactical in nature, aren't suited for strategic decisions. That realization came when they ran walz as a throw-away candidate. Fancy way of making a move without thinking.
And whats more, it almost worked, until it didn't. I don't think even the DNC expected that. GOP didn't either. Maybe why they ran winsome to begin with, maybe not, but thats neither here nor there.