Will CA redistrict, and what will be the result?

Question

This asks two questions:

Will CA redistrict, as determined by @/zax/will-california-pass-a-midcycle-red

How many times will a Republican party member be elected to a CA seat in the US House of Representatives in total over the course of the 2026, 2028, and 2030 federal elections.

For context, there are currently 9 Republicans, so if this holds constant, there will be 27 over the course of the next three elections.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Redistricts // <20 Republicans over three cycles, followed by Redistricts // 20-23 Republicans over three cycles and Redistricts // 24-27 Republicans over three cycles are most likely. See the market for live updates (11 traders, as of Nov 15, 2025).

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