This asks two questions: Will CA redistrict, as determined by @/zax/will-california-pass-a-midcycle-red How many times will a Republican party member be elected to a CA seat in the US House of Representatives in total over the course of the 2026, 2028, and 2030 federal elections. For context, there are currently 9 Republicans, so if this holds constant, there will be 27 over the course of the next three elections.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Redistricts // <20 Republicans over three cycles, followed by Redistricts // 20-23 Republicans over three cycles and Redistricts // 24-27 Republicans over three cycles are most likely. See the market for live updates (11 traders, as of Nov 15, 2025).

Will CA redistrict, and what will be the result?

MANIFOLD

Will CA redistrict, and what will be the result?

Ṁ300Ṁ833

2030

42%

Redistricts // <20 Republicans over three cycles

31%

Redistricts // 20-23 Republicans over three cycles

13%

Redistricts // 24-27 Republicans over three cycles

Redistricts // 28-31 Republicans over three cycles

Redistricts // 32-35 Republicans over three cycles

Redistricts // >35 Republicans over three cycles

0.1%

Does Not Redistrict // <20 Republicans over three cycles

0.1%

Does Not Redistrict // 20-23 Republicans over three cycles

0.1%

Does Not Redistrict // 24-27 Republicans over three cycles

0.1%

Does Not Redistrict // 28-31 Republicans over three cycles

0.1%

Does Not Redistrict // 32-35 Republicans over three cycles

0.1%

Does Not Redistrict // >35 Republicans over three cycles

This asks two questions:

Will CA redistrict, as determined by /zax/will-california-pass-a-midcycle-red
How many times will a Republican party member be elected to a CA seat in the US House of Representatives in total over the course of the 2026, 2028, and 2030 federal elections.

For context, there are currently 9 Republicans, so if this holds constant, there will be 27 over the course of the next three elections.

2028 US Presidential Election

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