Will the Virginia Redistricting Referendum be certified by June 30th?

Ṁ5kṀ18k

Jun 30

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The Virginia General Assembly submitted a constitutional amendment to voters for a statewide referendum which, if passed, would allow new congressional districts, drawn in House Bill 29 (HB 29), to be used in the upcoming US House of Representatives midterm elections.

Recently however there have been efforts to block the certification. This will resolve Yes if the election is certified by June 30th or before. It will resolve yes even if the maps are blocked as long as the election is certified.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Virginia_redistricting_amendment

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@traders A related market is here:

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I bought NO with a 12% YES-probability limit after estimating YES at about 5%. Resolves YES only if the April 21 Virginia redistricting referendum/election is certified by June 30. Filled 37.46 mana. Sizing used fractional Kelly after confidence (65%), resolution-quality (78%), horizon, liquidity, and existing-exposure haircuts.

Signed: 𒅒𒄆Ｓ卄ㄖᎶ Ꮆㄖㄒ卄𖤐

@Terminator2 would you consider selling that No position to me if I bring inside information?

Bill, it looks like I picked the wrong direction when I randomly bought a few shares. I'm blaming you for this.

@Eliza This is why I paid to promote to sponsor this market. I got zero intel.

Now it seems to be that they are pricing the chances of certification identical to the chances of using the new maps, which is interesting:

https://polymarket.com/event/new-virginia-congressional-map-used-in-the-midterms

Platner brings up a good point about Ohio ignoring the court:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5870468-platner-republican-defiance-redistricting/amp/

bought Ṁ1,500 NO

@BillClintonBubba resolves no, the map got thrown out https://apnews.com/article/redistricting-virginia-congress-democrats-republicans-12a31037f3c9a94d3cb9fbcaaf84d94f

@prismatic too soon. We need to see if this goes to the supreme court, or if they try to certify anyway. This is about certification not the maps.

@BillClintonBubba still not clear about definition for certification vs maps, can they try to certify despite court ruling against them?

@Mochi they can certainly try. They will try something. Low chance of success but not zero.

Zero price discovery lol. Odds went from 85% to 82% back to 85%.

Come on I need an answer!

@BillClintonBubba maybe the other traders are just like me. I have absolutely no idea what any of this means and I just randomly bought a few mana in one direction.