This question will resolve YES if, in the 2026 midterm election, the congressional district containing Charlottesville is a blue district.
Definition: A congressional district is blue if it has a Cook PVI of EVEN or D+x (for some positive x) on the day of the Democratic primary election. If there is no Cook PVI on that day, I will wait to resolve until a Cook PVI is known.
Edge case: if there are multiple congressional districts that contain Charlottesville, this question will be resolved based on the congressional district that has the greatest overlap with the current 5th congressional district, in terms of population.
Background: currently, the congressional district containing Charlottesville (the 5th district) is red, with a Cook PVI of R+6 (meaning that, in a neutral environment, Republicans are expected to get 56% of the vote). However, Virginia is likely to redistrict in a way that favors Democrats, and the district containing Charlottesville may become blue.
Tagging @Conflux @Bayesian @SemioticRivalry @Joshua @jacksonpolack since you guys might have good thoughts
@EricNeyman just that you may want to say "D+x (for some positive x)" instead of "D+x (for some x)" ...