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MANIFOLD
Will an Average New Zealander born in the year 2000 live to 150? (RESOLVES IN A WEEK)
6
Ṁ1kṀ228
Jun 10
43%
chance

I’m interested in what people think but don’t want a market that takes forever to resolve!

I will resolve based on what I think based on the best evidence that is posted in the comments

Could resolve to percentage

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Doesn’t Smoke, Moderate Exercise

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Basically resolves to the intersection of "agi by" and p(doom), no?

Or are you a very slow takeoff kind of guy?

@JoeandSeth I have never heard of slow takeoff before. Currently asking Gemini about it. I am not knowledgeable about this sort of stuff. I don’t have an opinion on fast or slow takeoff right now, as I’ve just learn it exists as a debate

@Jack1 oh! Enjoy, then. Very interesting subject and debate imo