Will an Average New Zealander born in the year 2000 live to 150? (RESOLVES IN A WEEK)

Ṁ1kṀ422

Jun 10

38%

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Historically infant mortality has accounted for pushing average lifespans now but that's less of an issue now.

How many New Zealanders were born in the year 2000? How many of them have died already?

The more NZers of that cohort die, the longer the rest of them need to live OVER the age of 150 for the AVERAGE to reach 150.

Basically resolves to the intersection of "agi by" and p(doom), no?

Or are you a very slow takeoff kind of guy?

@JoeandSeth I have never heard of slow takeoff before. Currently asking Gemini about it. I am not knowledgeable about this sort of stuff. I don’t have an opinion on fast or slow takeoff right now, as I’ve just learn it exists as a debate

@Jack1 oh! Enjoy, then. Very interesting subject and debate imo

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Will anybody born before 2000 live to be 150?

57% chance

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

41% chance

Will humans born between 1990-2000 be able to live for 150 years?

46% chance

Will I live to be 150 years old?

22% chance

Will I live to be 150 years old?

13% chance

Will a human being live to be 150 years old or older before the end of 2100?

30% chance

Will I be alive in 2 years time?

95% chance

Will we see someone live to 120 years old by 2030?

21% chance

Will anyone be at least 150 years old by 2072?

13% chance

Will the life expectancy of a newborn baby be above 100 years at any point by 2060?

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