I'll look at the net approval rating at https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin one week after at least one protestor got shot by law enforcement. It doesn't matter what agency the agent was from who shot the protestor(s). National guard or military counts as well, as long as it happened while they were on duty, responding to a protest.
If no protestors get shot during the second term I'll resolve the market N/A. If net approval is exactly identical in Silver's report, this resolves NO, since it didn't go up.
It's irrelevant for the market condition if the protestor survives. As long as they were hit by a proper, potentially deadly bullet, not rubber bullets or teargas or similar, it counts.
Edit: this has to be at a protest in the US.
Update 2026-01-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Protestors must be shot in their capacity as protestors for the shooting to count. The creator will make a judgment call in cases where this is unclear, but it must be pretty clear that they were acting as protestors at the time of the shooting.
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Does Renee Good count as a protester?
https://www.opb.org/article/2026/01/08/renee-goods-killing-by-ice-in-minneapolis-what-we-know-as-noem-gives-update/
"She was a compassionate neighbor trying to be a legal observer on behalf of her immigrant neighbors"
She was opposing ICE's activity, and protesters were present. I think she should count as a protester.
@UnconditionalProbability honestly, it's a much less clear case than I imagined. I was thinking of people with signs at an organized rally but didn't specify that, since I didn't expect ambiguity.
@traders what's everyone's thoughts on Renee Good counting as a protestor?
@AlexanderTheGreater Observing ICE can be a form of protest, so I'm not sure either. Agree that this feels a little muddy.
@Marnix given this market is about public sentiment, what counts as a protestor should probably be based on public sentiment about this having been a protestor. I'm getting on a flight right now but will think about how this could be established
@AlexanderTheGreater It wasn't a large organized protest, which is what I have to think of when I think of protestors, but I can see how this might count.
Will Trump's ratings go up after ICE killed American? https://youtu.be/9m5waZof-4A?si=xM_8yCAm_paCGdNv
Interesting data point from after the Kent State shooting https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kent_State_shootings