Background

The United Auto Workers (UAW) has called for a general strike on May 1, 2028, which would fall before the end of Trump's second term (which will end on January 20, 2029). This initiative aims to align contract expirations across industries to facilitate mass, simultaneous strikes on International Workers' Day. The UAW and other labor unions are working to increase labor's collective bargaining power through coordinated action.

A general strike involves workers across multiple industries simultaneously stopping work to achieve political or economic goals. The United States has not experienced a nationwide general strike in modern times, making this a potentially historic labor action if it occurs.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve as YES if:

• A general strike (defined as a coordinated work stoppage across multiple industries and regions of the United States) occurs at any point before the end of Trump's second term on January 20, 2029.

This market will resolve as NO if:

• No general strike occurs before January 20, 2029.

• Only isolated or industry-specific strikes occur without coordinating across multiple sectors.

Considerations

The success of organizing a general strike faces significant challenges:

• Current union density in the U.S. is relatively low compared to historical periods when general strikes were more common.

• Coordination across diverse industries and unions requires extensive planning and solidarity.

• Political and economic conditions, including potential changes in labor laws under a second Trump administration, could either facilitate or hinder organizing efforts.