Division of FSB (or whole FSB, or Russia) recognized as terrorist organization by Russia or US or UK or EU or UN by 2030
3
2kṀ170
2030
47%
chance

Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation (FSS, FSB, ФСБ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Security_Service) - Russian security agency, successor to KGB.

Resolves YES when several reputable sources report that government or parliament of Russia(*) or US or UK or EU or UN officially recognizes division of FSB or whole FSB or whole Russia as a terrorist organization. The recognition could be a direct proclamation OR inclusion in the list of terrorist organization OR terrorist states.

Proclamations from other security agencies is not enogh to trigger a YES resolution, it should be political decision by government or parliment, not by some (high ranking) officer or expert.

Otherwise resolves to NO on January 1st 2030.

*Russia = Russian Federation or any internationally recognized state, that is official successor to Russian Federation. In case of multiple successor states, resolves to YES once 50% of all sucessor states declare official recognition.

E.g. such recognition by Ukraine would not trigger YES resolution, as well as recognition by ex-RF state that is not direct successor to RF (think: Chechnya or Saha).

However, recognition by ex-RF "Moskovia" would trigger YES resolution, in case "Moskovia" proclaims itself as successor to RF and there are no other successor states OR there is only 2 successor states ("Moskovia" counts as 50% then).

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