Will the first human habitat on Mars be on the surface?

Mars

Basic

Ṁ251

2100

87%

chance

ALL

"Human habitat" being a stationary place where at least 1 human lives for at least 1 (Earth) month.

Inspired by #7 here.

Get Ṁ600 play money

Related questions

Will the first 10 person, 1 year human habitat on Mars be on the surface?

65% chance

When will the first humans land on Mars?

2042

The first humanoid to set foot on Mars will be...

When will there be people living permanently on mars?

Will the first person to walk on Mars be a woman?

43% chance

Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?

74% chance

Will the first person to land on Mars ever return to Earth?

73% chance

When will a (living) human first set foot on Mars?

2039

Who will be the first person on Mars?

Will humans establish a permanent colony in Mars by 2040?

Sort by:

I assume this excludes orbit?

@LivInTheLookingGlass Correct. Fails the "stationary" criterion, and also the "on Mars" one. :)

I would allow one floating in the atmosphere though, if such a thing is possible.

(That would resolve this to NO, since it's not on the surface.)

Would you allow one on Phobos or Deimos?

No, that's not "on Mars" either.

Interesting question though.

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-a-human-land-on-phobos-or-deim

@IsaacKing Do any of the Lagrange Points qualify?

@MichaelWheatley No, but points for creativity.

Will the first human habitat on Mars be on the surface?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition