When will a (living) human first set foot on Mars?
14
107
510
2101
2039
expected

This market resolves to whatever year in which a human being sets foot on the surface of the planet Mars and remains alive for at least one minute after arriving. Orbiting doesn't count, nor does landing in a spaceship and taking off again without first going out for a stroll.

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There's new and improved numeric markets, and I made one that asks the same question: