Who will be the first person on Mars?
Spaceβ€’Mars
9
32
2029
0%
Elon Musk
0.8%
An AI
12%
X Γ† A-12
0.9%
Tim Dodd, the Everyday Astronaut
7%
Jared Isaacman
3%
Jebediah Kerman
0.9%
Jessica Wittner
0.9%
Jack Hathaway
0.9%
Luke Delaney
1%
Raja Chari
1%
Nicole Aunapu Mann
15%
Someone who is not an option in this market at close time
10%
Aellagirl
11%
Qiaochu Yuan
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Will you extend the deadline of this market until someone lands on Mars? Because then "someone who isn't an option" will be false

Nice question!

@kolotom99 Thanks! I was fiddling with a market-tracking spreadsheet and needed a dummy market title, typed this out on a whim, and thought "Hang on, that could actually be a good one..."

answered
An AI

@MartinRandall arguably not a person

Of course, I think (hard AI is true) xor (hard AI is false and we are not truly intelligent by the same definition)

@LivInTheLookingGlass My m1 is a bet that the first person will be an AI which has "personhood" in the relevant sense.

@MartinRandall An AI with personhood would count. Defining personhood will be tricky, but that's a bridge to be crossed later...

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