Will real money prediction markets become legal in the US by the end of 2025?

PredictIt•Politics

169

Ṁ3.3K

Ṁ755

2026

15%

chance

ALL

Resolves to yes if real money prediction markets become legal without having to jump through regulatory hurdles such as PredictIt and Kalshi did. In the event of an ambiguous result (such as the loosening of some regulations but not others), I'll resolve to PROB 50%.

Mar 10, 11:24am: Clarification: In order to resolve to 50%, there need to have been *significant* changes in favor of prediction markets that noticeably change the landscape of attempted platforms.

Close date updated to 2026-01-01 12:00 am

Get Ṁ200 play money

Related questions

Will real money political prediction markets be legal in the US before the end of 2025?

20% chance

Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?

35% chance

Will sports betting be legal in at least 40 states by the end of 2024?

51% chance

Will real money political prediction markets be legal before 2029 conditional on who wins the presidential election?

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

23% chance

Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?

46% chance

If Trump wins in 2024, will real money political prediction markets be legal before 2029?

34% chance

Will Predictit Release a new market by the end of 2024?

74% chance

Will investment firms be interested in prediction market platforms before the end of 2024?

60% chance

Which prediction markets will win? At the end of 2024, will any prediction markets have a clear lead over the others?

13 Comments

43 Holders

321 Trades

Sort by:

predicts YES

What if the changes are approved by end of 2025 but don’t go into effect until 2026 (or later)? Or if it’s late in 2025 so that no organization has been operationalized yet?

@Tyler31 If a real-money prediction market were to materialize out of nowhere, it must be legal to run.

I would bet, but sadly MM makes betting long-term really painful.

Predictit's no-action letter from the CFTC got revoked: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8567-22

sold Ṁ14 of NO

@Sinclair I feel like this is a sign for a potential future regulatory framework that will allow more Kalshi-like platforms. 2025 is probably too soon, and I don't know that it'll actually be less hurdles, I'm just expecting something more formalized.

predicts YES

@Sinclair The problem with this entire question is that "hurdles" is too broad of a definition. Airplane travel is definitely "legalized" within the US, but airlines and airline passengers still have to "jump through regulatory hurdles." Furthermore, the phrasing "jump through hurdles" is a mixed metaphor (the correct form is "jump through hoops"), but that's neither here nor there.

@PeterBerggren How would you suggest I define the resolution terms more rigorously?

bought Ṁ1 of YES

"Hurdles" is too ambiguous of a term, but I do think there is a high likelihood of a formal regulatory framework for prediction markets, in the same sense that there is a formal framework for commodity futures markets, by this date, as there has been much more attention on such markets of late.

bought Ṁ1 of YES

>50% chance of a 50% resolution here, should trade at least 25%

bought Ṁ20 of NO

I don't see any reason the regulations would be loosened.

sold Ṁ20 of NO

(sold as there is no chance that I would have income, no matter the resolution of market)

bought Ṁ20 of NO

They can be easily reduced to obvious gambling (as demonstrated by spammy markets on Manifold), and are treated to be gambling by many. I fully expect that they will continue being treated as gambling - and it mostly makes sense.