Will anyone in the US be prosecuted for betting in an illegal prediction market before 2026?
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It must be simply for the act of betting. (Or a necessary condition, like transferring money into their wallet.)
If the prosecution is over insider trading because they shared information they shouldn't have had, that doesn't count. The spirit of this market is to investigate how safe it is for the average American to bet in Polymarket via a VPN.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Is there some expectation that there will be any political will to empower a regulatory authority (US? world?) to regulate prediction markets in the next two years? If there were one, it's not obvious to me they would define let alone prohibit "insider trading." And don't the US regulators have a lot on their plates already?
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