Will @PeterMillerc030 bet at least $1000 USD against @EliezerYudkowsky on the origins of Covid19 before 2025?
Basic
10
Ṁ2479Jan 2
1.6%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://twitter.com/tgof137/status/1739160184252227605
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory#ae9e8EUQzdJA7xviW8Eb
Must be a real-money bet between the two of them, where Peter's side of the bet is at least $1000 USD.
Peter has offered a much larger bet of $26,000, but no response from Eliezer yet. Eliezer has made large real money bets before, such as $150,000 on whether UFOs are NHIs, and ascribed a probability of 80% in 2021 to the lab leak theory.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
85% chance
Who will win the bet on Bitcoin hitting $100k in 2024 between @PeterMcCormack and @profplum99?
If @PeterMillerc030 places a large bet of $10,000 USD or more on the origins of Covid, will they pay out if they lose?
83% chance
Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?
33% chance
Will Scott Alexander make a 6+ digit bet related to COVID, by EOY 2024?
15% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky lose his bet with Unknown?
72% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get fully blaked before 2027?
21% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky have at least 200,000 followers on Twitter by the end of 2024?
12% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky hit 10 million Twitter followers by 2037?
18% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
4% chance