Will @MarcusAbramovitch win the $900-$100 bet vs @RobertCousineau about Threads not overtaking X/Twitter in DAU by 2025?
18
1kṀ1998
Jan 1
97%
chance

Resolves based on the real money bet between Marcus and Robert from episode 4 of Manifold LIve, based on this market:

Marcus is betting the market will resolve no, Robert is betting it will resolve yes. So this market should be the inverse of the original market.

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Title is backwards.

@IsaacKing Oh good catch, thank you

@IsaacKing Is it correct now? I am trying to bet NO on "Threads does not overtake Twitter." Also I missed the show but I'm assuming if Twitter is kaput and Threads isn't then Threads overtakes Twitter, if they're both kaput then Threads does not overtake.

@ClubmasterTransparent This is an inverse of the original market. Bet yes if you think X stays ahead of Threads, bet no if you think Threads overtakes twitter.

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Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?
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