Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. Will there be a debate, and if so what will the judges conclude?
No COVID debate organized by Scott Alexander with at least $10k concludes before 2026
Debate happens, judges find in favor of lab leak
Debate happens, judges find in favor of zoonosis
Debate happens, the result is a tie or equally split decision (Such as one judge for lab leak, one judge for Zoonosis)

In his latest post based on the Rootclaim COVID Origins debate, Scott concludes by saying:

If it helps, I’m currently working out terms for a 6-digit lab leak bet of my own (no guarantee this will come to fruition, most of these fall apart in the resolution criteria stage). I feel bad for not being willing to answer every possible lab leak argument going forward, but hopefully offering lab leakers a few hundred thousand dollars if I’m wrong will be a suitable consolation prize.

For now, I’m still at 90-10 zoonosis.

In the Rootclaim debate, both sides put up $100,000 and then two neutral judges decided whether whether Covid-19 most likely originated from zoonosis or a lab leak from gain of function research. In the Rootclaim debate, both judges found in favor of Zoonosis.

It seems likely that a debate organized by Scott will follow a similar format, although perhaps he will have someone other than himself arguing for Zoonosis or the debate might be held in text form. A debate in any format organized by Alexander with at least $10,000 of his own money will resolve this market.

This is a full multichoice market on all possible outcomes, you can also find a binary contingent market here:

I will not trade on this question.

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bought Ṁ10 Debate happens, judg... NO

@Joshua Can Other happen and/or new answers be created?

@Bayesian I thought it was good to include Other since we don't know any details yet. I probably won't add more options if I can help it, though.

I think that win/lose/tie cover most possible outcomes in most possible forms of debate, or else the market can resolve to "no debate".

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