Eliezer Yudkowsky is found to have performed prediction market fraud by the end of 2025
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I will exercise my judgement on what counts as prediction market fraud.

Nov 26, 11:44pm: Eliezer Yudkowsky performs prediction market fraud by the end of 2025 → Eliezer Yudkowsky is found to have performed prediction market fraud by the end of 2025

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Can you give some examples of what you would and would not consider "prediction market fraud"?

@lu

Examples of prediction market fraud:

  • Incorrectly resolving a prediction market

  • Lying to manipulate a market about him

  • Paying people real money to buy a certain position on a market

Examples of not prediction market fraud:

  • Buying shares with an anonymous account

  • Encouraging people to buy a certain position on a market without monetary reward

sold Ṁ2 of YES

@AlanaXiang Thanks, I was not sure if it included legal but shady market manipulation, which I would expect of him - but I'd guess you would not resolve to YES for the kind of things I'd expect here

@AlanaXiang What about:

  • Doing something in the real world to make a prediction market resolve a certain way.

  • Betting in a market in a way that seems "manipulatey", such as significantly changing the probability in a "resolves to market" market.

@IsaacKing

Doing something in the real world to make a market resolve a certain way CAN be fraud, but this is a grey area. Following through on a commitment/personal goals market to make it resolves to YES, for example, is obviously not fraud.

Ok if Eliezer manipulates a Qualy sentence market that’d be hilarious. I don’t think I’d count that sort of thing as prediction market fraud unless it seems particularly egregious AND the market creator deems that it is fraud.

predicts NO

@AlanaXiang and @IsaacKing what is a case where doing something in the real world to make a market resolve a certain way would be fraud? If it is your own market and you explicitly said you wouldn't is the only case I can readily think of where this doesn't seem legit.

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