Will Eliezer Yudkowsky's $150,000 UFO bet market spend at least a week below 90% by the end of 2024?
33
647
610
2025
70%
chance

https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500

Any 7 day period where it does not get to 90% or above (as displayed in the UI) counts.

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opened a Ṁ1,250 YES at 40% order

I wanna hedge out quite a bit here - there's a large 40% yes order for anyone who wants it.

Oops - I'm gonna get crushed by the change to the loan system. I didn't notice that. I expect it is quite possible that it will spend a week below 90% given the length of time until it resolves.

bought Ṁ100 NO

@ChrisPrichard I actually think this will still resolve no. No holders will want to sell their shares too.

@Joshua I hope you're right! Though this market provides a lot of incentive for @Bair to push it below 90% and keep it there for a week, so we'll see!

@ChrisPrichard I don't have the mana to keep it below 90% on my own.

@Bair Depends on how much people "resist" your bets, I suppose!

@ChrisPrichard What are the changes to the loan system (or to anythhing else)? There doesn't seem to be a good centralised source of information :(

@Bair Ah, thank you. Maybe they should link this on the homepage?

@AngolaMaldives yeah, that would be nice indeed.

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