Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Question

Original Lesswrong thread here.

Original tweet here:

[image]Unlinked market with shorter timeframes here: @/Joshua/when-will-we-know-that-any-past-ufo

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 96% chance (1,001 traders, as of Aug 4, 2026).