When will the Yudkowsky $150,000 UFO market first stay at ≥95% for a week? | Manifold

When will the Yudkowsky $150,000 UFO market first stay at ≥95% for a week?

Basic

6

Ṁ222

2028

24%

2025

22%

2026

22%

2027

22%

2028

9%

Never/later

When the above market stays ≥95% according to the web UI for at least 160 hours in any 168 hour period, this market will resolve to the year (anywhere on Earth) in which that 168 hour period ends.

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#Eliezer Yudkowsky

Get

1,000

and

3.00

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-7% 1d45% chance

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