Resolves as YES if Eliezer Yudkowsky, founder of the LessWrong forum, prominent advocate of the idea that AI will cause the extinction of humanity, and perhaps the founder of a new apocalyptic religious movement (https://web.archive.org/web/20230707061904/https://a16z.com/2023/06/06/ai-will-save-the-world/) is irrelevant by 2030.
Decision criteria: Go to Google Trends and search for 'Eliezer Yudkowsky'. Set the search window from 2004 to present. Set the area to be 'United States.' If the December 2029 trend score is less than or equal to three times the Feb 2022 trend score, then this market resolves as YES.
If Yudkowsky has been turned into paperclips by 2030 by an AI, claim resolves as NO on grounds of his martyrdom.
[If Google Trends ceases to exist by 2030, I will use the same algorithm on an equivalent service if it exists. If there is no equivalent service, then I will use my best judgment.]
Am I stupid or does this not make any sense "If the December 2029 trend score is less than or equal to three times the Feb 2022 trend score, then this market resolves as YES."
So if the interest in him grows by 3 he will be counted as irrelevant? I would say he is not irrelevant now, he has a ted talk and was in the Times, if interest grows by 3 he clearly would be relevant, no?
@Timothy Take a look at the Google Trends graph and it will make sense then. I consider 3x his Feb 2022 score to be 'Irrelevant.' It's a poor proxy for relevance but it's measurable and it's positively associated with relevance, so that's the best I can do.