107
2.1k
1.1k
2025
29%
chance

I've been chatting with @BTE about their plan to found a competitor to Manifold. The core plan is a little differerent from the direction Manifold has gone, and seems like it could go very well or completely fail. I've been asked not to share the details.

Resolves subjectivly based on whether it overall seems to have worked out. (Resolves N/A if it's not attempted.) I won't bet.

Get Ṁ600 play money
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Now that BTE is banned, when do we know more?

@TheWabiSabi What did BTE get banned for?

Regardless that doesn't seem relevant to this market.

You can learn more here: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-socialpredict-be-run-by-two-pu

BTE got banned for abusing a mana-printing exploit.

@BTE should I bet yes?

bought Ṁ84 YES

Betting against BTE is a fool's errand here

@StarkLN You are the smartest Manifolder of all my friend

@StarkLN Well maybe second smartest after @Mira

Here is a (hopefully) more publicly verifiable market on the same topic. https://manifold.markets/jack/will-socialpredict-be-run-by-two-pu

opened aṀ5,000 NO at 40% order
reposted

🤑🤑🤑

2 traders bought Ṁ400 NO
bought Ṁ140 YES from 30% to 32%

@BTE don't mind me, just offering incentive

I can't correct it since these are both subjective markets, but come on folks, these probabilities are obviously inconsistent.

bought Ṁ333 of NO

@IsaacKing I didn't realize the secret plan working was the same thing as the site being successful but if that's the case then yeah this is very high.

@Joshua It's possible for this market to resolve YES while that one resolves NO; BTE's plan could work well enough to get his site to be somewhat popular, but it doesn't quite surpass Manifold. Or it gets super popular really quickly but then dies away before 2 years have passed.

But it's not a 50 percentage point difference.

bought Ṁ222 of NO

Is his secret plan to get profit from the bots betting against him in this market?

bought Ṁ0 of YES

Now that the website is up, the attempt is made and this will not resolve NA. So far, I don't see a plan that is worth keeping secret.

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@marktwse maybe the secret plan is to get attention by having us all speculate about what his secret plan is

@BTE can you say more about the secret plan now that the site is launched?

predicts YES

@Joshua Absolutely. Blog post coming.

bought Ṁ10 YES

i hope it works, good luck @BTE

boughtṀ10YES

@BTE 👀

soldṀ429YES
predicts NO

@BTE They’re just freeing up mana

Is @BTE plan more or less likely to fail than a new restaurant? Rule of thumb on restaurants 90% fail first 12 months. Unclear, was this shifted by either pandemic or rise of food cart pod model. Also my initial assumption that @BTE plan does not involve food may not hold up.

bought Ṁ50 NO from 50% to 47%

@ClubmasterTransparent Not the best comparison. Restaurants are the most likely businesses to fail. Everyone wants to open a restaurant. Turns out the market is not that large. Prediction markets are quite the opposite. Only a small fraction of the potential market space is captured.

@Shump good points. But there's huge need for scale just getting a prediction market off the ground. Appears to be many underrepresented groups of potential bettors here even if we limit the universe to reasonably intelligent and well-intentioned people. There are only so many AI "enthusiasts", LW community and millennials/Zennials in the world.

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