How many Americans will die as a result of commercial air travel accidents in 2025?
25
Ṁ1kṀ7kresolved Jan 1
100%95%
Less than 100
2%
100-500
1.0%
501-1000
0.7%
1001-10000
0.5%
More than 10000
This applies to all kinds of deadly accidents involving commercial passenger aircraft, including but not limited to crashes. It does not include deaths from crashes of private planes (corporate jets, general aviation).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ259 | |
| 2 | Ṁ199 | |
| 3 | Ṁ129 | |
| 4 | Ṁ113 | |
| 5 | Ṁ112 |
Sort by:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fatal_accidents_and_incidents_involving_commercial_aircraft_in_the_United_States
Going by this list, the last year with more than 100 deaths was 2001, and 2025 is currently at 77. Incidents were more common in the 1990s, however.
@SaviorofPlant sold my position due to the ATC staffing problems, which are likely to persist for at least another week or two
People are also trading
Related questions
Which will be the first year the USA has less than 15k traffic deaths? (42k in 2024)
Greater than 45k people die from car accidents annually in the US before 2040
46% chance
Will any "DEI hire" pilot on a US airline make a mistake that results in at least one other person's death before 2028?
35% chance
When will the US annual traffic fatality number go under 30k? Long term market. (2024=42k)
Fewer than 5k people die from car accidents annually in the US before 2040
22% chance
Greater than 54k people die from car accidents annually in the US before 2040
17% chance
Fewer than 20k people die from car accidents annually in the US before 2040
62% chance
Global car traffic deaths in 2026
1.2m