Models have been doing near-magic feats recently.
Will an AI do Magic next year? (that we know of)

The following things are considered magic:

• Standard temperature and pressure superconductor developed

• Factoring RSA-2048

• All of @jim's predictions come true

• SPY goes above 1500

• Mind uploading

• Trigger a false vacuum decay

• Intelligence augmentation: Something that can increase (almost) any human IQ by >15 points

• Time travel, telepathy, teleportation, wormholes used

• Macroscopic stable self-replicating life not based on existing biological life that can do a backflip

• ECI >= 200

• Reverse Aging (significant, e.g. 50 -> 25)

• Turn 1kg of lead into gold

• World peace

• China or Russia is overthrown

• Alignment is solved

• Wheat production is 100x cheaper

• Find aliens (not related to us)

• Cure depression (works on 95%+ of depressed people)

• Portable fusion reactors

• Method is found to resolve any dispute between humans with both coming out happy

• Anything that is not listed above, but that clearly exceeds the Magicalness bar set by the events above. I can also add new magical things to the list.

FAQ:

Q: What does "X" mean?
A: I'll know it when I see it.