This question resolves YES if, before 1 January 2024, I submit my dissertation for examination at the Australian National University and post proof of this submission to a public source (eg, the comments of this market). The thesis does not need to be examined or accepted in order for positive resolution (ie, I do not need to graduate or be awarded the degree by 1 January 2024), but it must be submitted.
A daily log of my writing progress is available here.
I will not trade on this market.
How are you feeling about it these days?
@Conflux I've had a few good days since I started tracking daily word count — including some days of realising that some notes could be turned into chunks of chapters basically as-is — but my sense is that I'm yet to crack the "plod along, do a solid amount of work each day" consistency thing, and that consistency is the central factor at this point in most folks' phd journeys.
@galen Well, I found this market because it’s #1 by liquidity. If you think I’m a good predictor, your subsidy is succeeding! I often bet NO on personal goal markets which I think are too high, and I’ve got a few thousand spare mana at the moment.
I would love to hear any other information you want to share that is relevant to this market.
Buying some NO because of the potential return if something unexpected happens, but you seem to be on the right track!
Bet this up because a) how often are people on track to finish their dissertation on time based on linear extrapolation early in the relevant year? (Though I'm imagining you also need to edit etc and/or do things that aren't writing); b) making progress on it almost every day is encouraging
I’ve set up a little tracking script which outputs my daily progress here: https://galen.me/data/logs/thesis/progress.csv
Not sure whether it’ll be helpful to me, or any forecasters — or even noticed by anyone — but I may as well mention it! (I’ve also set up a super naïve auto-updating forecast & summary on my now page.)
Could we hear more about the situation? e.g. are you trying to submit it by then? Are there any consequences if you don't? How long have you been working on it?
@KatjaGrace Yeah, of course!
The pace of my work was pretty substantially disrupted by covid (ie, I had to take a leave of absence from the program & then return part-time) but I am now in the 'writing up' stage, and I'm trying to submit by the end of this year. My wife, friends, family, and supervisors are all very supportive of this goal. As I understand it, the nature of my scholarship/position also means that my department gets paid a lump sum by the Australian government when I submit, so there's a sense in which my immediate colleagues (who've invested resources in me) are incentivised to see me complete.
Some other context:
A few years ago, I got an autism & adhd diagnosis. I have complicated feelings & opinions about the nature/validity of this diagnosis, but it does capture the vibe of my (usual) mode of work: profound difficulty focusing on some things & 'directing my attention', combined with profound hyperfocus on other things. I'm currently taking medication for the adhd, with mixed success.
I previously completed an MPhil, which was also by dissertation, and submitted that almost six months later than my goal date.
I'm also employed as a research software engineer, so I'm juggling PhD writing & dev work.
My thesis is interdisciplinary — mostly philosophy & CS, but also 'digital humanities' and (weirdly) design. As a result of this, there are some open questions about the expected form/style of the final dissertation.
I have a lot of written notes, which my primary supervisor seems to think of as 'a draft', but I think of as 'not yet a draft'.
I've recently noticed that I find it quite motivating to know that there's a prediction market on a part of my life, in the sense that I can (try to) act in ways that "move the market price" (hence the many other Quantified Self markets I've created).
I'm considering setting up a script to publicly log 'words written per day' (or similar) to give forecasters more information. I'll (probably) bother to implement that if someone comments on this market and says they would actually find it useful when forecasting.
@galen Thanks! Alas for such covid disruption. I finished my interdisciplinary-philosophy honors thesis at ANU in spite of a similar work mode 12 years ago, so this is very relatable :) I think you can do it!
@galen I would probably find a 'words written per day' tracker useful for forecasting, but can't promise to be back forecasting reliably
@KatjaGrace Oh wow, small world! I don't know what it was like when you were here—Canberra is a weird town—but it feels like a good place to be trying to knuckle down and finish a phd!