@Conflux I think the market price is too high, but I’m perhaps the worst person to ask about it — too close to the project etc.

@galen What factors go into that feeling?

@Conflux I've had a few good days since I started tracking daily word count — including some days of realising that some notes could be turned into chunks of chapters basically as-is — but my sense is that I'm yet to crack the "plod along, do a solid amount of work each day" consistency thing, and that consistency is the central factor at this point in most folks' phd journeys.

@galen Well, good luck! Or maybe bad luck, idk, this market has so much subsidy

@Conflux I subsidised in the hopes of incentivising a more accurate market price (and an outside-view assessment that I'm incapable of generating). No regrets!

@galen Well, I found this market because it’s #1 by liquidity. If you think I’m a good predictor, your subsidy is succeeding! I often bet NO on personal goal markets which I think are too high, and I’ve got a few thousand spare mana at the moment.

I would love to hear any other information you want to share that is relevant to this market.

@KatjaGrace Yeah, of course!

The pace of my work was pretty substantially disrupted by covid (ie, I had to take a leave of absence from the program & then return part-time) but I am now in the 'writing up' stage, and I'm trying to submit by the end of this year. My wife, friends, family, and supervisors are all very supportive of this goal. As I understand it, the nature of my scholarship/position also means that my department gets paid a lump sum by the Australian government when I submit, so there's a sense in which my immediate colleagues (who've invested resources in me) are incentivised to see me complete.

Some other context:

1. A few years ago, I got an autism & adhd diagnosis. I have complicated feelings & opinions about the nature/validity of this diagnosis, but it does capture the vibe of my (usual) mode of work: profound difficulty focusing on some things & 'directing my attention', combined with profound hyperfocus on other things. I'm currently taking medication for the adhd, with mixed success.

2. I previously completed an MPhil, which was also by dissertation, and submitted that almost six months later than my goal date.

3. I'm also employed as a research software engineer, so I'm juggling PhD writing & dev work.

4. My thesis is interdisciplinary — mostly philosophy & CS, but also 'digital humanities' and (weirdly) design. As a result of this, there are some open questions about the expected form/style of the final dissertation.

5. I have a lot of written notes, which my primary supervisor seems to think of as 'a draft', but I think of as 'not yet a draft'.

6. I've recently noticed that I find it quite motivating to know that there's a prediction market on a part of my life, in the sense that I can (try to) act in ways that "move the market price" (hence the many other Quantified Self markets I've created).

I'm considering setting up a script to publicly log 'words written per day' (or similar) to give forecasters more information. I'll (probably) bother to implement that if someone comments on this market and says they would actually find it useful when forecasting.

@galen Thanks! Alas for such covid disruption. I finished my interdisciplinary-philosophy honors thesis at ANU in spite of a similar work mode 12 years ago, so this is very relatable :) I think you can do it!

@galen I would probably find a 'words written per day' tracker useful for forecasting, but can't promise to be back forecasting reliably

@KatjaGrace Oh wow, small world! I don't know what it was like when you were here—Canberra is a weird town—but it feels like a good place to be trying to knuckle down and finish a phd!