https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_YR4
If its current trajectory will make it miss the Earth in 2032, this market resolves N/A. Otherwise:
If no mission is launched, or all missions fail to encounter the asteroid at all, this resolves NO.
If any mission deflects the asteroid entirely, this resolves YES.
If it's deflected such that it will hit the Earth at a later date, this resolves NO if that date is within 5 years, YES if it's further out.
If it was going to hit a populated part of the Earth, and the mission changed its orbit to hit an unpopulated part instead, this resolves YES.
If it was going to hit a populated area, and a mission from that country changes its orbit to hit a different populated area instead, this resolves NO.
If the mission breaks it up into smaller pieces and those pieces end up causing significantly less damage than the whole would have done, this resolves YES.
In general, if there's an edge case, it'll resolve YES if I feel the vibes worldwide are "yay we did it", and resolve NO if the vibes are "wow that sucks".
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