If 2024 YR4 is on a collision course with Earth, will it be successfully deflected?
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Plus
7
Ṁ797
2033
65%
chance

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_YR4

If its current trajectory will make it miss the Earth in 2032, this market resolves N/A. Otherwise:

  • If no mission is launched, or all missions fail to encounter the asteroid at all, this resolves NO.

  • If any mission deflects the asteroid entirely, this resolves YES.

  • If it's deflected such that it will hit the Earth at a later date, this resolves NO if that date is within 5 years, YES if it's further out.

  • If it was going to hit a populated part of the Earth, and the mission changed its orbit to hit an unpopulated part instead, this resolves YES.

  • If it was going to hit a populated area, and a mission from that country changes its orbit to hit a different populated area instead, this resolves NO.

  • If the mission breaks it up into smaller pieces and those pieces end up causing significantly less damage than the whole would have done, this resolves YES.

In general, if there's an edge case, it'll resolve YES if I feel the vibes worldwide are "yay we did it", and resolve NO if the vibes are "something went wrong".

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filled a Ṁ25 YES at 62% order

Buying YES because I have bigger problems to worry about if the answer is "no"

filled a Ṁ10 YES at 61% order

What criteria do you have for N/A resolution, that is that it is going to miss anyway? One in a billion?

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