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@IsaacKing Is this the dishonesty we’re supposed to be voting based on? Rereading it, it seems like this could just be read as talking about firstuserhere’s plan (before firstuserhere forgot / changed their mind) as opposed to a promise. Or is there evidence I’m missing? Rethinking my vote

@traders Please don't forget to vote in the poll below.

@IsaacKing Can users who you’ve blocked vote?

@IsaacKing I voted on a comment, which you subsequently edited, meaning had I not noticed that, it would’ve looked like I voted for the new version which I don’t necessarily endorse. Going forward, can you make a new comment instead?

Lots of people asking about this market who seem to be unable to read the market description. To help them out, here is the relevant line:

Resolves NO if someone gives me an example of @firstuserhere doing something dishonest or significantly misleading in a Manifold-related context.

Here is a market in which FUH repeatedly claimed that they were going to take an action, affirmed it multiple times, guaranteed it was going to happen and that I was safe to bet on it, then did not do it. That is clearly "dishonest or significantly misleading".

Here is another line from the market description:

To be clear I'm referring only to things that would cause another user of the site to feel betrayed or otherwise very unhappy.

I am a user of the site, and FUH getting me to bet under false pretenses and costing me M$300,000 has definitely caused me to feel betrayed or otherwise very unhappy.

This is the most obvious market resolution ever. The criteria have been met in a manner that's about as unambiguous as is theoretically possible for a market like this.

If anyone would like to provide a counterargument that makes the slightest amount of sense, I'm happy to respond to it. But everyone who just provides a 1 star rating and/or goes to complain in discord without explaining why they believe this resolution to be incorrect is clearly acting in bad faith, and I don't feel any obligation to waste my time arguing with people who seem incapable of understanding basic English.

Like this comment if you believe this market should remain open.

Like this comment if you believe this market should resolve NO.

@IsaacKing “In the event of disagreement over what counts” does not specify that you have to consider the disagreement sensible and sincere to you. One might even argue that the very fact that you disagree with something makes it almost certain that you’ll consider it nonsensical and bad-faith.

“In the event of disagreement over what counts” does not specify that you have to consider the disagreement sensible and sincere to you.

Yeah, hence why I'm running the poll as stated.

One might even argue that the very fact that you disagree with something makes it almost certain that you’ll consider it nonsensical and bad-faith.

Obviously false, as a brief glance at my commenting/market/twitter history would show.

@IsaacKing So I don’t follow all of the drama, and if there’s something I missed feel free to point me at it.

My steelman understanding of your perspective:

FUH created a market on how long he’d keep a streak alive. At no point did he say he’d try his hardest to keep the streak alive. (If he did, please correct my understanding!)

This attracted whales.

At some point, he labeled it a Cetacean Clash.

He told you he’d break the streak in December, giving you an advantage in the Baleen Battle.

You took advantage of this and kept it private until it paid off for you.(edit: “limited your losses”, not “paid off”)

Afterwards, you considered this as enough of a backstab as to make FUH untrustworthy in general.

ASSUMING that I’m following correctly, the reason I disagree is that the market is clearly labeled as a meme market and at no point does FUH say he’d try really hard to keep the streak alive.

I think you considered the “I won’t take a dive” to be implicit in the market, despite the fact that it wasn’t stated. Or maybe you consider the insider trading to be the sin. (Edit: maybe he promised you privately and I just didn’t see it because private?)

As an aside, this is your market and bought 500 no immediately before resolving according to your interest, which can create the impression that you’re resolving as a cash grab.

If you disagree on any of these points or I’ve misunderstood, by all means reply and I might be persuaded.

There's a decent possibility that firstuserhere forgot that he had that one streak forgiveness point and messed up. After all he wanted to end the streak as late as possible.

@IsaacKing

Here is a market in which FUH repeatedly claimed that they were going to take an action, affirmed it multiple times, guaranteed it was going to happen and that I was safe to bet on it, then did not do it. That is clearly "dishonest or significantly misleading".

Can you link to where FUH said that? I wasn't paying much attention to the market but I didn't spot it.

@JohnSmithb9be What does any of that have to do with the question at hand? Was FUH honest in their statements, or not?

@Agh That could be possible in some other cases, but FUH was reminded about this many times near the end, and didn't respond to any of my messages during the last few days, and then placed a bet on the 30th after I had messaged them to ask about this. So that seems implausible.

@jack It was via PM to me, I provided screenshots in the comments.

@IsaacKing Broadly speaking, you stated that this resolves unambiguously in your favor and I believe you’re annoyed that everyone else disagrees. If you want people in general to agree with you, you need to convince them.

I spent 10 minutes thumb typing out my reasons for disagreeing with your resolution. If you’re going to disregard my reasons for disagreeing with you and refuse to explain them, then I’ll shrug and believe I was misresolved against until i get enough information to update.

I personally feel super frustrated because I’m trying to accommodate your self-described lack of social skills. By explaining my reasoning in great detail, I’m trying to make it so that you don’t have to guess about motivations and instead we can look at the facts of the case.

However, the response to me trying to get more information from you and explain my position was “What does any of that matter?”

@JohnSmithb9be +1 Isaac please take this seriously. The meta here is that ****SOMETHING IN YOUR MIND IS WRONG*****

Therefore, if you obey your mind's feeling "this guy is full of lies" you will never discover what might be mistaken in your belief system.

Despite your desire not to answer or explain, it's worth going step by step through your reasoning and his, noting it down, so we can mechanically detect inaccuracies.

This is the same thought problem w/you stackoverflow questions, and w/your responses to us on the "why does this server stop" market. You're replying based on the assumption that you are the right person to decide what facts to include, who is worth answering, etc. This defeats the point of asking people for information. You have to entertain things that in a sense seem wrong. The real problem is above your conscious level; something upstream in your world interpretation and views on what other people know/do/should do/expect you to do is wrong. You resolved things in a way based on a set of facts; other people are asking to re-examine the facts. If you just reassert your original judgment (which we alreayd know you have, since you already resolved), that's not a real "appeal". In an appeal you have to re-examine the evidence [even though you're already fully sure you're right]. And to be even more right, you also have to expose your entire set of evidence used to the public. Even if you're sure you're right, surviving a trial like that should make you even more confident!

Ever hear of the first line of defense for helpdesk workers receiving calls from people who say their printer won't work? They used to ask: "Have you checked it's plugged in?" The customer says "Who do you think I am, some kind of idiot? of course it is!!".

In fact, 20% of the time it isn't plugged in.

So helpdesk people learned to instead ask "Okay, we need to refresh the circuit board, so please go unplug it, wait 10 seconds, then plug it back in again and come back on the phone". This solved the problem since it allowed the customer to hide their mistake by pretending that this action was what solved it. Same thing here. Someone (you or others) is "wrong". But the wrongness is unlikely to be due to malice; it almost always be a case of "missing information" or shame or something else. So if we all gradually explain our reasons, it will give cover to everyone to gently adjust, privately. They may say "oh you know what, I had forgotten about evidence X". When in fact actually they knew about it, but were stupid and read it wrong or remembered it wrong. People do NOT want to admit to being stupid; so going through a slightly long/onerous process of review gives them cover to change their opinion; they can say "This has given me a lot of time to think, and upon thought, I believe Y now" without social stigma. Our mutual goal should be to help everyone here (us or the adversary) to change to be right.

Y’all I got a market like this one

for you…

now that this market’s resolved, i want to point out how spiteful and personal this market felt.

And given the feedback (image), I would’ve been surprised the following clause wasn’t enacted if Isaac didn’t have a >=45x payout over anyone else that traded here.

To be clear I'm referring only to things that would cause another user of the site to feel betrayed or otherwise very unhappy. In the event of disagreement over what counts, I will defer to a vote among non-firstuserhere users. Anyone with the trustworthyish badge gets 5 votes, everyone else gets 1.

@mattyb Was a vote conducted?

@IsaacKing What was the resolving example?

@Mira the streak market

@SemioticRivalry ootl, what happened there?

@mattyb https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/will-firstuserhere-break-the-265-da#sowWp6kvWym257vopY6S

(fwiw fuh lost 44k in this market)

@SemioticRivalry ty. not sure if he’s no longer “generally trusted” from losing money and doing a pretty predictable thing on a market he controlled (which he forecasted), but that’s the thing you get for betting on these subjective markets

@mattyb imo fuh is among the most trustworthy users on the site and I doubt he intentionally misled Isaac.

@SemioticRivalry agreed. i reviewed this resolve accordingly

@Mira https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/will-firstuserhere-break-the-265-da