The fertilization must occur via sex and the baby must be born via somewhat normal childbirth rather than a cesarean section. The process must be relatively safe and not highly experimental, and it must be cheap enough to be available to the middle class.
It does still count if it's only possible based on actions taken during childhood, such as hormones to change pelvis growth.
I think this is likely going to be possible by then, although not necessarily a common practice. Human biology is not infinitely complex, and there are quite a few ways this problem could be approached. All this contingent on significant progress in various fields (including biotech) of course.
I'm completely stunned by this market being at almost 80%. Could someone please sketch out a path for me of how on earth you expect a safe cheap procedure to replicate:
Ovaries that produces eggs
Zygote implantation
A womb that can sustain a 9 month gestation
A vaginal tract flexible enough to dilate to 10cm
These include entire organs that don't exist.
I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here, this market should be down below 10%...
@jonsimon A lot of questions on Manifold are basically "bets on a transhumanist future". If tech moved really fast and also humanity didn't go extinct (or regress super hard against trans people) by 2055, this would be plausible. (E.g. using not-yet-perfected-or-even-extant technologies like organ growing, cybernetic implants, etc.)
I'm not sure you need 1, 2 or 4 unless you're requiring a higher standard of 'normally' than I would on first pass.
I get the feeling that if we were able to develop an ostensibly 'artificial' womb, that is implanted into a human and could be used for the majority of a 9 month pregnancy, even if the fetus was formed using artificial techniques and delivered surgically, you'd be looking at a YES resolution.
Something along the lines of https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4608829/ but gooder and internal...
(I agree this feels high, but also 30 years is a long time in technology).