Before 2050, will it become safe and easy to change one's apparent sex at will?
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2050
35%
chance

"Apparent sex" here includes voice timbre, facial appearance, body shape, and genitals. It does not include reproductive system, DNA, hormornes, or qualia. The procedure needs to be good enough that a stranger can't tell someone has undergone the procedure just by looking at them.

"Easy" means it's not significantly more prohibitive for the middle class than other big life changes such as moving, getting a new job, etc.

In order for this to resolve YES, there must be many people who are not super-wealthy and have changed their sex back and forth several times, being largely indistiguishable from people born as that sex each time.

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Yes but it will be illegal in most places

I read "at will" like it was a location and I thought to myself "where the heck is will?"

Is there any example of a modern surgery which was expensive and dangerous but is now safe, easy to reverse, and affordable to most people?

yeah Michael Levin's research track will allow de-aging once we have a couple more generations of biotech, this market is relatively trivial compared to that. and 2050 is a long way off. this market is effectively "given that humanity survives hard ai-powered biotech, will we get the benefits of that biotech?"

predicts NO

@L 2050 is just over 27 years off. The same timespan going backwards takes us back to mid-1995. I'm sure futurists back then imagined bold fundamental strides in medicine by the distant future of 2022 that have largely failed to materialise (although more incremental improvement has made quietly impressive gains). The pace may pickup somewhat but 'trivial sex change' is clearly beyond a reasonable projection for anything short of an AGI revolution in that timeframe - and if that happens all bets for humanity's future are off.

predicts YES

@AngolaMaldives agreed; agi revolution is on our doorstep, and programming ais will be starkly superintelligent by the end of next year, but this is much harder than agi, so it'll take a while after agi before it materializes.

predicts YES

@L

programming ais will be starkly superintelligent by the end of next year

Mind defining this a little more specifically?

How does this resolve if the people are digital?

predicts YES

@Nikola Good question. I'll say it depends on whether the majority of the population has gone digital. If they have, then that counts. If digital people are still fringe and most people don't want to move over, it doesn't count.

predicts NO

@IsaacKing I think digital people are easily distributable from people born as some sex, at least until we have digital births.

predicts YES

@MartinRandall Not from digital people who have kept the same sex

predicts YES
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