2024
At the end of 2023, how well will people in EA think they handled the FTX scandal?
52%
chance

At the end of 2023, I will post a poll in EA spaces asking the following question:

Near the end of 2022, there was a large scandel involving FTX that also directly impacted EA in a lot of ways. In the wake of the scandel, many forum posts were written, tweets were tweeted, memes were posted, arguments were had, and important descisions were made.

In your personal opinion, did the EA community handle this scandal approximately as well as they could have handled it? A "1" means you think it was handled terribly, a 3 is about the average for scandels involving other professional organizations, and a 5 means you think it was near perfect and could only make minor improvements.

This question is only about EA behavior and decisions made as a result of the scandel after it happened. It is not about anything that occurred prior to the scandel, such as anyone's failure to see it coming.

The poll will allow people to select an integer from 1-5, and I will resolve this market to the average result, normalized to a percentage. (e.g. if the average result is 1, this resolves to 0%. An average of 3 resolves it to 50%.)

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johnleoks avatar
johnleoks
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StevenK avatar
Stevenis predicting YES at 59%

There are a few questions like this where the title is phrased as a binary even though it resolves to a percentage. The probability that most people will think it was handled well can differ a lot from the degree to which the average person will think it was handled well, or the fraction of people who will think it was handled well.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King

@StevenK Good point, thank you. Fixed the title.

StevenK avatar
Stevenis predicting YES at 59%

@IsaacKing It technically still differs from the resolution criterion. Maybe 100% of people will think it was a 4 out of 5, and then the percentage of people who think it was handled well is 100% but the question resolution is 75%. How about something like "How well will people in EA think EA handled the situation?"

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King

@StevenK Oh right, I forgot how I had said I was running the poll. Changed once again.

noumena avatar
Rachel Shubought Ṁ40 of YES

I think EA will overcorrect with everyone tripping over each other to demand mutual accountability and institute exhausting and centralizing forms of bureaucratic procedure and consensus decision-making, but everyone will be proud of themselves nevertheless. Transparency will be agreed upon as a shared goal, but propriety will be the real coordination point. If this is the course EA takes, it'll be well into the future before everyone realizes that this was the point at which EA ossified.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King

@noumena This is a fascinating prediction, and strikes me as plausible. Any interest in making a market on it? (If not, mind if I do?)

noumena avatar
Rachel Shuis predicting YES at 66%

Just did!

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall

I'm curious what major decisions you see as having been taken. Only one that I know of is the FTX Future Fund resignation.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King

@MartinRandall That's one of them. Also the communal decision to take the stance of "SBF does not represent EA, we do not condone his actions, this is not what we stand for". And everyone currently deciding what to do with any funds they received from FTX. I'm sure more will be made in the coming weeks.

ManifoldDream avatar
Manifold in the WildBot

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